Pre-bid demolition intelligence · bridge remove-and-replace
The demolition line is where bids leak.
Removal of the existing structure is ~1.5% of the winning bid — and the item bidders disagree on most in the whole proposal. Everyone prices the replacement well. Almost nobody prices the removal from evidence.
The asymmetry · measured, not folklore
Winners carry it leaner.
The field · 13 states
Nobody agrees.
Cross-bidder disagreement on demolition items runs 1.45–2.78× the level on everything else in the same lettings — highest where the item is an undescribed lump sum. Opacity is priced as risk.
The winners · 25,894 contracts
They lean low.
In every measurable state, winners carry the removal below their own bid average more often than not. The people taking the work price it like they know something. They do — they've done it before.
The envelope · where it hides
The money isn't the wrecking.
Winner lean on demolition runs 0 to −10%. On the temporary works around it — cofferdams, access, shoring — it runs 2–4× deeper. The mispriced money is the envelope, not the line.
The practice · what happens on your calendar
Commitments you can
hold us to.
- Delivered ≥2 weeks before bid day — or you don't pay. A prospectus that lands during number-lock week is worthless; we price the deadline in.
- Fixed fee quoted within one business day of naming the contract. Low four figures. No subscription, no seat licenses, no procurement friction.
- Worked example on the calendar now: C204877 plans post ~JUL 21 → refreshed prospectus ready AUG 4 → letting AUG 18.
- Every number carries its source — element inventory, permit sheet, LiDAR, bid record — tagged line by line, the way a checker would want it.
- Bands come from awarded contracts, not judgment: structure-resolved records joining material, dimensions, condition to realized prices. n stated on every figure.
- Independent of any bidder. Same-letting exclusivity: one prospectus per contract, first request holds it.
- Every published band gets scored against the bid tab when it posts — publicly, either way. Prediction №1 scores ~SEP 2026.
- A named analyst signs every prospectus and answers the phone about it. No brand voice, no support queue.
The method · beacon №1
The structure is public record.
So is its removal.
From inventory data, permit drawings, and LiDAR we rebuild the bridge member-by-member and simulate the take-down — pick by pick, load by load, against the real constraint calendar. Below: NCDOT C204877, SR 2125 over Floyds Creek, letting August 18.
| Structure reconstructed | 93 members · 340.7 T |
| Routine pick, PSC channel unit | 4.54 T — one crane |
| Crane shifts, superstructure | 5–8 |
| Debris haul | ~23 loads @ 15 T |
| Governing window | bat moratorium 4/15–10/15 |
| Method verdict | saw-cut-and-lift |
| REMV EXIST STR band | $40K – $125K |
Calibration
We keep score in public.
Every band we publish gets scored against the bid tab when it posts. Ask anyone else selling estimates for their scorecard.
The letting brief · no charge
Twenty minutes with
your estimating team.
We walk your next letting list against our board, spin the Floyds Creek model live, and leave the one-pager. In your office or on a call. If nothing on your list warrants a prospectus, we'll say so.
Low four figures per contract · fixed · quoted in one business day